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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.